Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Tetlock and Gardner have created an endlessly entertaining but deeply practical work in Superforecasting. They each cover the fields of psychology, political science, and journalism and describe in detail the results of their analysis of historical research as well as applied experimentation to uncover what truly are the characteristics of people that can predict aspects of the future to a remarkable degree of accuracy, the timeframes predictions usually stay relevant, what makes for bad predictions, and what are the cognitive characteristics that defy common perspectives and use of so called “experts” in any given field. This book is a great read to understand our current time of endless “Talking Head Analysts” on cable television doling out political, financial, and other various forms of predictions but also as a useful guide in strategy planning, future forecasting, and risk management. I recommend this book for people generally interested in psychology and cognitive biases, but also to leaders, strategic planners, and innovators as well.